Identifying the abiotic and biotic drivers behind the elevational distribution shift of a parasitic plant

Climate change will alter the biotic and abiotic environment and dissipate ecological barriers, reorganising maps of current distribution of parasites and their hosts. In this study, we analyse the population dynamics of the parasitic plant Viscum album subsp. austriacum and explore key biotic (host availability and seed dispersal) as well as abiotic (temperature) factors influencing elevational distribution. The study was conducted along an elevational gradient of a Mediterranean mountain, covering the distribution belts of three potential pine hosts: Pinus halepensis (1300-1500 m), P. nigra (1300-1900 m) and P. sylvestris var. nevadensis (1600-2000 m). Along this gradient, we measured multiple variables of mistletoe population (prevalence, abundance and demographic profile) and different factors that might define the current mistletoe distribution (host suitability and availability, temperature and seed dispersal services). We found a decline in mistletoe prevalence and abundance with increasing elevation, detecting larger values of both variables at lower elevations of the most suitable host (Pinus nigra). Pinus sylvestris var. nevadensis was a suboptimal but suitable host for the parasite at high elevations. Mistletoe found suitable temperatures and seed dispersal services all along the gradient, being able to recruit at any site. With warming temperatures, the presence of suitable vectors for parasite dispersion, and the presence of a sub-optimal host (P. sylvestris var. nevadensis) at the mountain top, mistletoe currently has a window of opportunity to expand its present geographic distribution to the summits.