Use of a multinational survey to provide clinical guidelines for upper gastrointestinal bleeding in developing...

The OMGE multinational survey of patients with upper gastrointestinal bleeding demonstrated that it was possible to predict patient outcome, using a computer and a database of information from many centres. It remained to be seen whether this database could be used in specific remote areas of the world. To answer this question, two areas have been studied, Sikkim and China. In Sikkim, when the computer-aided prognostic system was used, 69% of patients put into a high-risk group for rebleeding actually did so; and 54% died. By contrast, only 2% of patients placed into a low-risk group for rebleeding did so. As there is little computer technology in Sikkim, a simplified scoring system was developed which gave the same predictive accuracy as the computer system. In China there was a slightly lower accuracy with both systems. Hence a new database and scoring system were created, using only information from Chinese patients. This database improved the results. From the studies it is suggested that these types of systems can be of value to patients in remote areas by targeting patients at high risk rebleeding or dying, so that the scarce resources available can be best used.