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MEASUREMENT WITHOUT THEORY, ONCE AGAIN.

Jeremy Greenwood1, Ananth Seshadri2, Guillaume Vandenbroucke3

  • 1University of Pennsylvania.

Journal of Demographic Economics
|November 17, 2018
PubMed
Summary
This summary is machine-generated.

The baby boom was not caused by household productivity gains. Evidence suggests appliance ownership does not decrease fertility and Amish technology use does not support this theory.

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Area of Science:

  • Demographic studies
  • Economic history
  • Sociology

Background:

  • The baby boom generation's fertility patterns are a subject of ongoing research.
  • A previous hypothesis suggested increased household productivity, driven by technology, influenced baby boom fertility.
  • This hypothesis linked technological adoption in households to fertility rates.

Purpose of the Study:

  • To critically evaluate the hypothesis that increased household productivity drove the baby boom.
  • To re-examine the relationship between appliance ownership and fertility.
  • To investigate the role of technology adoption in fertility trends, using the Amish as a case study.

Main Methods:

  • Statistical analysis of fertility data and appliance ownership.
  • Econometric modeling to test correlations proposed in prior research.
  • Qualitative and quantitative review of Amish societal practices regarding technology.

Main Results:

  • A negative correlation between appliance ownership and fertility was found to be a natural outcome of the original model, not necessarily causal evidence.
  • The study challenges the direct negative link between technology adoption and fertility rates.
  • Evidence suggests the Amish community's technology adoption patterns do not align with the presumed aversion to modern technology.

Conclusions:

  • The hypothesis linking baby boom fertility to household productivity gains is not supported by the presented evidence.
  • The correlation between appliance ownership and fertility requires nuanced interpretation within economic models.
  • The Amish case study provides a counterpoint to theories solely focused on technology aversion influencing fertility.