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Updated: Aug 29, 2025

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Using Intentions to Predict Fertility.

Johannes Norling1

  • 1Department of Economics, Mount Holyoke College, 50 College Street, South Hadley, MA 01075.

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PubMed
Summary
This summary is machine-generated.

Childless women often intend to have more children than they actually do. Fertility prediction improves when intentions focus on having another child, not just the total number.

Keywords:
C83D84FertilityIntentionsJ13Rational expectationsSurvey methods

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Area of Science:

  • Demography
  • Sociology
  • Economics

Background:

  • Fertility intentions are crucial for demographic projections.
  • Previous research suggests a gap between intended and actual fertility.
  • Understanding intention accuracy is key for population studies.

Purpose of the Study:

  • To analyze the accuracy of fertility intentions in predicting actual fertility.
  • To investigate why average intentions may not match average actual fertility.
  • To explore the role of rational expectations in fertility planning.

Main Methods:

  • Utilized data from the Panel Study of Income Dynamics (PSID).
  • Analyzed reported fertility intentions against actual fertility outcomes.
  • Compared prediction accuracy of different intention formats.

Main Results:

  • On average, women report intending to have more children than they ultimately have.
  • Intention data specifying the desire for 'another child' predicts actual fertility more accurately.
  • Discrepancies can exist even with rational expectations and accurate intention formation.

Conclusions:

  • Fertility intention measures significantly impact prediction accuracy.
  • The way intentions are recorded influences their predictive power.
  • Average intentions may not reflect average actual fertility due to aggregation effects, not necessarily prediction errors.