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Analysis of risk factors and development of scoring system to predict severity of upper gastrointestinal bleeding in
Wei Zheng1, Linmei Jiang1, Xinyi Jia1
1Department of Gastroenterology, Children's Hospital, Zhejiang University School of Medicine, Hangzhou, Zhejiang, China.
Insights
This study identified key risk factors for severe upper gastrointestinal bleeding in children. A new scoring system helps assess severity for better clinical management of pediatric gastrointestinal bleeding.
Area of Science:
- Pediatric Gastroenterology
- Clinical Research
- Medical Informatics
Background:
- Upper gastrointestinal bleeding (UGIB) is a serious condition in children.
- Identifying risk factors and severity is crucial for effective management.
Purpose of the Study:
- To analyze clinical features and risk factors of UGIB in children.
- To develop a clinical scoring system for assessing UGIB severity in pediatric patients.
Main Methods:
- Retrospective cohort study of 224 children hospitalized with UGIB.
- Statistical analysis of demographic, clinical, and laboratory data.
- Logistic regression to identify independent risk factors for severe UGIB.
Main Results:
- Five independent risk factors for severe UGIB identified: poor consciousness, low hemoglobin (<80 g/L), significant hemoglobin drop (>20 g/L), hematochezia, and anemic appearance.
- A scoring system was developed using these factors, with a total score of 16 and an intervention cutoff of 8.
- Endoscopy timing impacted etiology detection rates.
Conclusions:
- The developed scoring system, combined with identified risk factors, is valuable for assessing UGIB severity in children.
- This tool aids in clinical decision-making for pediatric UGIB cases.
Background And Aim:
Upper gastrointestinal bleeding is a rare and potentially life-threatening condition in children. Herein, clinical features and risk factors in children with upper gastrointestinal bleeding were analyzed, and a clinical scoring system was constructed to assess severity.
Methods:
This retrospective cohort study involved 224 children hospitalized with upper gastrointestinal bleeding between January 2012 and April 2018. Demographic data, clinical information, and laboratory test results on admission were statistically examined.
Results:
Out of 224 upper gastrointestinal bleeding cases, 76 were diagnosed as severe and 148 as mild cases according to the rate of blood loss and severity. Severe group was significantly different from mild group in 23 items including age, number of patients aged more than 7 years, and so forth (P < 0.01 or P < 0.05). Positive detection rate of bleeding etiology was gradually decreased (P < 0.01) in relation to delay in timing of endoscopy. Analysis of logistic regression evinced five independent risk factors for severe cases to be associated with poor consciousness, hemoglobin < 80 g/L, hemoglobin drop of > 20 g/L, hematochezia, and anemic appearance (P < 0.01 or P < 0.05). Using these five parameters, a number of scoring models were tested. The most predictive resulted in a scoring system constructed with a total of 16 and a cutoff for intervention of 8.
Conclusions:
Amalgamation of risk factors with the scoring system plays an important role in assessing upper gastrointestinal bleeding severity in children.
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