Optimal investment in electric generating capacity under climate policy

Area of Science:

• Energy Systems Analysis
• Climate Change Mitigation
• Renewable Energy Integration

Background:

• Electricity generation heavily relies on fossil fuels, necessitating a shift to cleaner sources.
• Alberta's grid is over 90% dependent on fossil fuels, with a policy to phase out coal by 2030.
• Replacing coal capacity with renewables is a key climate change mitigation strategy.

Purpose of the Study:

• To analyze the optimal investment mix in energy sources for Alberta's grid.
• To evaluate the feasibility of replacing coal capacity with solar, wind, natural gas, and nuclear power.
• To assess the impact of different energy portfolios on carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions.

Main Methods:

• Utilized load duration curves and screening curves for energy system analysis.
• Modeled the Alberta electricity grid under various policy scenarios.
• Compared the effectiveness of intermittent renewables, natural gas, and nuclear power in reducing emissions.

Main Results:

• Solar and wind power alone are insufficient to replace two-thirds of Alberta's coal generation capacity.
• Significant investments in natural gas infrastructure will be necessary.
• Nuclear power offers substantial CO2 emission reductions (up to 95%) compared to renewables (55%) at high carbon prices.

Conclusions:

• Alberta's transition away from coal requires a more diversified energy strategy than relying solely on solar and wind.
• Natural gas will play a transitional role, but its long-term viability depends on emissions.
• Nuclear energy presents a viable, low-emission option for deep decarbonization of the electricity grid.