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Climatic Responses to Future Trans-Arctic Shipping.

Scott R Stephenson¹, Wenshan Wang², Charles S Zender²

¹Department of Geography University of Connecticut Storrs CT USA.

Geophysical Research Letters

|November 30, 2018

Summary

Increased Arctic shipping emissions could cool the region by nearly 1°C by 2099. This cooling effect is driven by cloud formation from ship pollution, impacting Arctic climate and sea ice.

Keywords:

Arctic Cloud feedbacks Earth system modeling Emissions Sea ice Shipping

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Area of Science:

Climate Science
Atmospheric Science
Oceanography

Background:

Global temperature rise is accelerating Arctic sea ice loss.
Opening Arctic waters to commercial shipping raises concerns about regional climate impacts from emissions.

Purpose of the Study:

To investigate the effects of 21st-century trans-Arctic shipping emissions on the Arctic climate.
To quantify the regional climate forcing from projected shipping activities.

Main Methods:

Utilized a fully coupled Earth system model (CESM 1.2.2).
Employed a suite of newly developed projections for 21st-century trans-Arctic shipping emissions.

Main Results:

Projected trans-Arctic shipping emissions could reduce Arctic warming by approximately 1°C by 2099.
Sulfate emissions stimulate liquid water cloud formation, increasing cloud fraction and liquid water path.
These changes lead to cooling of the lower atmosphere and surface, amplified by sea ice-albedo and water vapor feedbacks.

Conclusions:

Arctic shipping emissions can exert a significant regional cooling influence, counteracting some warming.
The complex interactions between emissions, cloud formation, and climate feedbacks necessitate further research.
Findings highlight the need for policy considerations regarding emerging Arctic shipping routes.