Frequency and risk factors for liver disease following pancreatitis: A population-based cohort study

Both liver disease (LD) and pancreatitis pose substantial burdens. There have been no general population-based studies on frequency of LD after an episode of pancreatitis. The aim of this study was to investigate the occurrence of LD in a population-based cohort of patients following pancreatitis.

Nationwide data on the general population of nearly 3 million people were used to identify retrospectively diagnoses of acute pancreatitis, chronic pancreatitis (CP), LD and cirrhosis from 1998 to 2016. Acute pancreatitis was categorised as first (FAP) or recurrent (RAP) episode. Number of pancreatitis recurrences prior to LD diagnosis was determined.

A total of 20,931 pancreatitis patients were included, of which 874 developed LD following pancreatitis. The incidence of LD in FAP was 115.59 (95% confidence interval 102.19-128.98), in RAP - 217.63 (95% confidence interval 173.31-261.94), and in CP - 539.43 (95% confidence interval 494.72-584.13) patients per 100,000 pancreatitis patients per year. There was a significant increase in the probability of LD with increasing number of pancreatitis recurrences and, for the same number of pancreatitis recurrences, LD was significantly more frequent after CP than RAP (hazard ratio 1.666 (95% confidence interval 1.322-2.098; p = <0.001)).

The frequency of LD increases from FAP to RAP to CP. While number of pancreatitis recurrences is a significant risk factor for development of LD, there is a higher probability of LD following CP than RAP even for the same number of recurrences. Interventions preventing pancreatitis and its progression may lower the burden of LD.