Climate change impact and adaptation for wheat protein.

Area of Science:

• Agricultural Science
• Climate Science
• Nutritional Science

Background:

• Wheat quality, specifically grain protein concentration, is crucial for human nutrition but often secondary in crop improvement.
• Global climate change presents complex challenges to wheat production, affecting both yield and nutritional value.

Purpose of the Study:

• To simulate the global impact of climate change on wheat yield and grain protein concentration using a multi-model ensemble.
• To assess the potential benefits and drawbacks of adapting wheat to future climate conditions, including elevated CO2, temperature, and altered rainfall patterns.

Main Methods:

• Utilized a 32-model ensemble to simulate global wheat yield and quality under projected climate change scenarios for 2050.
• Incorporated factors such as elevated atmospheric carbon dioxide (CO2), rising temperatures, altered rainfall, and nitrogen availability in the simulations.
• Evaluated the effects of introducing genotypes adapted to warmer temperatures.

Main Results:

• Projected benefits of elevated CO2 on wheat yield and protein yield may be offset by rising temperatures and rainfall changes.
• Low-rainfall regions are expected to experience decreased and more variable grain and protein yields, with nitrogen availability limiting CO2 fertilization.
• Adapting wheat to warmer temperatures could increase global yield by 7% and protein yield by 2%, but decrease grain protein concentration by 1.1 percentage points (-8.6%).

Conclusions:

• Climate change adaptations that enhance wheat grain yield may not simultaneously improve grain quality, posing a dual challenge for global food security.
• Regional disparities in climate change impacts on wheat production highlight the need for localized adaptation strategies.
• Balancing increased wheat yield with maintained or improved grain protein concentration is essential for future food and nutritional security.