Not one Brexit: How local context and social processes influence policy analysis

Area of Science:

• Agricultural Economics
• Rural Sociology
• Socioeconomic Modeling

Background:

• Pre-existing trends in Scottish cattle farming include succession issues, rise of leisure farming, diversification, industrialization, and a shrinking middle-sized farm sector.
• These trends created a heterogeneous agricultural landscape in Scotland prior to the United Kingdom's withdrawal from the European Union (Brexit).

Purpose of the Study:

• To empirically assess the multifaceted impacts of Brexit on Scottish cattle farms.
• To analyze how pre-Brexit socioeconomic trends and local contexts mediate Brexit's effects on the agricultural sector.

Main Methods:

• Development of an empirical agent-based model (ABM).
• Integration of pre-Brexit trends and local contextual factors into the ABM simulations.
• Spatial analysis of Brexit impacts across different Scottish regions.

Main Results:

• Brexit's impact is significantly influenced by pre-existing local conditions, such as the prevalence of farm industrialization.
• A distinct geographical variation in Brexit's effects was observed, differentiating northern, central, and southern Scottish constituencies.
• The "disappearing middle" phenomenon and farm size polarization were found to interact with Brexit's economic consequences.

Conclusions:

• Policy analysis must account for the complex, heterogeneous social and economic contexts of agricultural communities when assessing major policy changes like Brexit.
• Agent-based modeling provides a valuable framework for incorporating real-world complexities into policy impact assessments.
• Future policy recommendations require nuanced approaches sensitive to regional specificities and ongoing agricultural trends.