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Practice and perspectives in the validation of resource management models
Sibel Eker1, Elena Rovenskaya2,3, Michael Obersteiner2
1International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis (IIASA), Schlossplatz 1, A2361, Laxenburg, Austria. eker@iiasa.ac.at.
Nature Communications
|December 19, 2018
Summary
Quantitative models aid sustainability policy, but validation practices need improvement. Empirical data dominates, while qualitative methods for enhanced usefulness and public trust are underutilized, hindering effective decision-making.
Area of Science:
- Sustainability Science
- Quantitative Modelling
Background:
- Quantitative models are crucial for sustainability policy.
- Model validation is essential for credibility and utility.
- Current validation practices may not fully meet policy needs.
Purpose of the Study:
- To investigate current validation viewpoints and approaches in sustainability science.
- To identify gaps and areas for improvement in model validation practices.
Main Methods:
- Comprehensive analysis of academic literature on model validation.
- Survey conducted among practitioners in sustainability science.
Main Results:
- Empirical data is a primary focus in validation across sustainability science domains.
- Qualitative and participatory validation approaches are less prominent.
- Model usefulness is prioritized differently by developers versus users.
- Experience enhances recognition of decision-makers' need for clear communication on assumptions and uncertainties.
Conclusions:
- Current validation predominantly relies on data, potentially overlooking qualitative aspects.
- There's a need to integrate qualitative and participatory methods to boost model usefulness and public reliability.
- Improving communication of model assumptions and uncertainties is key for effective policy integration.
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