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Related Experiment Video

Updated: Feb 28, 2026

Design and Use of a Full Flow Sampling System FFS for the Quantification of Methane Emissions

Design and Use of a Full Flow Sampling System FFS for the Quantification of Methane Emissions

Published on: June 12, 2016

Negative emissions to mitigate Earth system risks.

Thomas Gasser¹, Armon Rezai^2,3, Côme Cheritel^2,4

¹International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis, Laxenburg, Austria. gasser@iiasa.ac.at.

Nature Communications

|February 26, 2026

Summary

This summary is machine-generated.

Incorporating uncertainty into climate policy ex-ante reveals new strategies. This approach requires earlier net-zero carbon dioxide emissions and planned net-negative emissions to mitigate long-term Earth system risks.

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Last Updated: Feb 28, 2026

Design and Use of a Full Flow Sampling System FFS for the Quantification of Methane Emissions

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Published on: June 12, 2016

Monitoring Pedogenic Inorganic Carbon Accumulation Due to Weathering of Amended Silicate Minerals in Agricultural Soils.

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Published on: June 4, 2021

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Area of Science:

Climate Science
Earth System Science
Environmental Policy

Background:

Current climate policies often assume a deterministic Earth system, evaluating impacts retrospectively.
Proactive approaches integrating uncertainty to anticipate Earth system risks are underdeveloped.

Purpose of the Study:

To develop global climate strategies using an ex-ante approach that incorporates physical uncertainty.
To identify climate strategies that mitigate Earth system risks through precautionary measures.

Main Methods:

Utilized an integrated assessment framework combining Bayesian fusion of Earth system models and observational data.
Estimated physical uncertainties within the Earth system.

Main Results:

Ex-ante strategies necessitate earlier net-zero carbon dioxide (CO₂) emissions, potentially by a decade.
Near-term carbon prices may need to double.
Sustained net-negative emissions are required for long-term risk mitigation, distinct from overshoot scenarios.

Conclusions:

Integrating ex-ante uncertainty into climate strategy development offers a more robust approach to managing Earth system risks.
This necessitates significant adjustments to emission targets and economic instruments.
Addressing long-term risks requires a paradigm shift in climate policy design.