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Extremeness Aversion Is a Cause of Anchoring.
Joshua Lewis1, Celia Gaertig1, Joseph P Simmons1
1The Wharton School, University of Pennsylvania.
Psychological Science
|December 19, 2018
Summary
People avoid extreme adjustments when estimating unknown quantities, a bias known as anchoring. This study shows that perceived extremeness of adjustments influences anchoring effects, suggesting a desire to avoid overly large changes.
Area of Science:
- Cognitive Psychology
- Behavioral Economics
- Decision Science
Background:
- Anchoring is a cognitive bias where individuals rely too heavily on the first piece of information offered (the "anchor") when making decisions.
- Existing research highlights insufficient adjustment from anchors, but the underlying mechanisms remain debated.
Purpose of the Study:
- To investigate whether a desire to avoid making extreme adjustments contributes to the anchoring effect.
- To examine how perceived extremeness of potential adjustments influences behavior.
Main Methods:
- Seven studies with 5,279 participants were conducted.
- Participants estimated unknown quantities, with adjustments influenced by irrelevant cues of extremeness.
- Experimental manipulations varied the maximum allowable adjustment and the proximity of outcomes to the anchor.
Main Results:
- Transparently irrelevant cues of extremeness significantly influenced adjustments from anchors.
- Participants were less likely to make large adjustments when the maximum allowable adjustment was smaller.
- Considering outcomes within a smaller distance from the anchor led to smaller adjustments.
Conclusions:
- Anchoring effects may be partly driven by a psychological desire to avoid adjustments perceived as too extreme.
- The perceived extremeness of an adjustment, rather than its objective magnitude, can shape decision-making.
- Understanding this motivation offers new insights into cognitive biases and judgment processes.
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