Early Prediction of Malignant Brain Edema After Ischemic Stroke

Background and Purpose- Malignant brain edema after ischemic stroke has high mortality but limited treatment. Therefore, early prediction is important, and we systematically reviewed predictors and predictive models to identify reliable markers for the development of malignant edema. Methods- We searched Medline and Embase from inception to March 2018 and included studies assessing predictors or predictive models for malignant brain edema after ischemic stroke. Study quality was assessed by a 17-item tool. Odds ratios, mean differences, or standardized mean differences were pooled in random-effects modeling. Predictive models were descriptively analyzed. Results- We included 38 studies (3278 patients) with 24 clinical factors, 7 domains of imaging markers, 13 serum biomarkers, and 4 models. Generally, the included studies were small and showed potential publication bias. Malignant edema was associated with younger age (n=2075; mean difference, -4.42; 95% CI, -6.63 to -2.22), higher admission National Institutes of Health Stroke Scale scores (n=807, median 17-20 versus 5.5-15), and parenchymal hypoattenuation >50% of the middle cerebral artery territory on initial computed tomography (n=420; odds ratio, 5.33; 95% CI, 2.93-9.68). Revascularization (n=1600, odds ratio, 0.37; 95% CI, 0.24-0.57) were associated with a lower risk for malignant edema. Four predictive models all showed an overall C statistic >0.70, with a risk of overfitting. Conclusions- Younger age, higher National Institutes of Health Stroke Scale, and larger parenchymal hypoattenuation on computed tomography are reliable early predictors for malignant edema. Revascularization reduces the risk of malignant edema. Future studies with robust design are needed to explore optimal cutoff age and National Institutes of Health Stroke Scale scores and to validate and improve existing models.