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Longevity-Related Options for Social Security: a Microsimulation Approach to Retirement Age and Mortality

Gayle L Reznik¹, Kennith A Couch², Christopher R Tamborini¹

¹Office of Retirement Policy at the Social Security Administration, 500 E Street, SW, Washington, DC 20254.

Journal of Policy Analysis and Management : [The Journal of the Association for Public Policy Analysis and Management]

|December 21, 2018

Summary

Raising Social Security retirement ages reduces benefits and may increase poverty, especially for disadvantaged groups. A mortality adjustment can protect vulnerable populations from these policy changes.

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Area of Science:

Social Sciences
Economics
Public Policy

Background:

Increasing life expectancy and differential mortality rates impact Social Security solvency.
Policy adjustments are needed to address long-term financial sustainability.

Purpose of the Study:

To analyze the distributional effects of Social Security policy changes.
To examine how raising retirement ages affects different individuals and households.
To assess the impact of mortality adjustments on policy outcomes.

Main Methods:

Utilized the robust Modeling Income in the Near Term (MINT) microsimulation model.
Simulated policy changes for Social Security beneficiaries in 2030.
Incorporated scenarios for raising retirement ages and mortality adjustments.

Main Results:

Across-the-board reductions in Social Security benefit levels were observed with retirement age increases.
Projected poverty rates are expected to rise slightly, disproportionately affecting high-mortality and disadvantaged groups.
A mortality adjustment, combined with retirement age increases, offered protective effects for disadvantaged groups' benefits.

Conclusions:

Raising retirement ages alone or combined with early eligibility changes reduces benefits and may increase poverty.
Mortality adjustments can mitigate negative impacts on vulnerable populations when combined with retirement age increases.
Policy simulations including behavioral adjustments show a minimal increase in average poverty rates.