Hindcasting eutrophication and changes in temperature and storage volume in a semi-arid reservoir: a multi-decadal...

In situ monitoring of freshwater systems is often constrained by cost and accessibility, particularly in developing countries and in remote areas. Satellite remote sensing is therefore increasingly being integrated with existing in situ water quality monitoring programs. In this study, we use the Landsat TM/ETM+ image record collected between 1984 and 2015 to track temporal changes in trophic status, chlorophyll-a levels, algal bloom incidences, water clarity, water temperature, and reservoir water volume in a poorly monitored hypereutrophic semi-arid reservoir. Historical reservoir water quality data are inferred from calibrated Landsat-based empirical algorithms. The results show that, although the reservoir has existed in a eutrophic to hypereutrophic state over the past 30 years, its water quality has significantly deteriorated in the most recent decade. Mean summer chlorophyll-a concentrations were found to have increased by around 163% between 1984 and 2015, while water clarity dropped by more than 58% over the same period. Statistically significant changes in surface water temperatures were also apparent for the month of August, with a cumulative increase of 1.24 °C over the 31-year study period. The rise in temperature appears to correlate with the incidence of Microcystis blooms observed in the reservoir over the past decade. On the other hand, the water volume in the reservoir was found to have been fairly stable over time, likely as a result of adaptive reservoir management. This study demonstrates the strength of using Landsat data to hindcast and quantify changes in water quality and quantity in poorly monitored freshwater systems.