Uncertainty analysis for infrasound waveform inversion: Application to explosion yield estimation

While the acoustic waveform inversion method is increasingly used in geophysical acoustics to constrain source parameters, the inversion results are often provided without any uncertainty analysis. This study presents a probabilistic representation for acoustic waveform inversion and method to evaluate the inversion uncertainty using ground-truth data. A posteriori probability distribution of source estimate is described by a priori waveform misfit covariance and the variance of acoustic source model. The probabilistic framework is applied to local explosion infrasound to estimate the yields of explosions and uncertainty. Estimated yields showed overall good agreement with the true yields (less than 25% errors). The uncertainty of the estimated yield is represented by the sum of the waveform inversion uncertainty and source model uncertainty. It is shown that the yield uncertainty attributed to local infrasound inversion (within 10 km) is as small as the uncertainty caused by 10% prediction errors in the acoustic source model. These results indicate that the acoustic source model uncertainty should also be considered for accurate yield estimation and that local infrasound can be a valuable tool to understand the magnitude of the source uncertainty.