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Exploring Future Food Provision Scenarios for China.
Lin Ma1, Zhaohai Bai1, Wenqi Ma2
1Key Laboratory of Agricultural Water Resources, Center for Agricultural Resources Research , Institute of Genetics and Developmental Biology, Chinese Academy of Sciences , Shijiazhuang 050021 , China.
Environmental Science & Technology
|January 6, 2019
Summary
China
Area of Science:
- Environmental Science
- Agricultural Science
- Sustainable Development Studies
Background:
- Developing sustainable food systems is crucial for emerging economies facing rapid environmental and resource changes.
- China's food system is undergoing significant transformation, impacting its environment and natural resources.
Purpose of the Study:
- To explore future pathways for a sustainable food system in China by 2030.
- To analyze the environmental impacts of different food system scenarios linked to eight Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs).
Main Methods:
- Utilized a modeling framework to forecast environmental indicators under various scenarios.
- Assessed impacts on land and water availability, greenhouse gas emissions, and nutrient losses.
- Evaluated contributions to achieving SDGs under different food system strategies.
Main Results:
- A business as usual scenario (BAU) projects increased food consumption, land/water shortages, and significant greenhouse gas (GHG) and nutrient pollution.
- Alternative pathways (produce more/better food, consume/waste less, import more) show potential reductions of 7-55% in environmental pressures compared to BAU.
- Combining 'produce more/better food' and 'consume/waste less' strategies was most effective; importing food externalizes impacts.
Conclusions:
- China's ambitious agricultural and environmental targets are potentially achievable through strategic food system reforms.
- Integrated modeling provides a framework for analyzing food system changes and their link to SDGs.
- Addressing technological, social, and structural barriers is essential for successful implementation.
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