Spatiotemporal characterisation and risk factor analysis of malaria outbreak in Cabo Verde in 2017

Cabo Verde is a country that has been in the pre-elimination stage of malaria since the year 2000. The country is still reporting cases, particularly in the capital of Praia, where more than 50% of the national population live. This study aims to examine the spatial and temporal epidemiological profile of malaria across the country during the 2017 outbreak and to analyse the risk factors, which may have influenced the trend in malaria cases.

Longitudinal data collected from all malaria cases in Cabo Verde for the year 2017 were used in this study. The epidemiological characteristics of the cases were analysed. Local and spatial clusters of malaria from Praia were detected by applying the Cluster and Outlier Analysis (Anselin Local Moran's I) to determine the spatial clustering pattern. We then used the Pearson correlation coefficient to analyse the relationship between malaria cases and meteorological variables to identify underlying drivers.

In 2017, 446 cases of malaria were reported in Cabo Verde with the peak of cases in October. These cases were primarily Plasmodium falciparum infections. Of these cases, 423 were indigenous infections recorded in Praia, while 23 were imported malaria cases from different African countries. One case of P. vivax infection was imported from Brazil. Spatial autocorrelation analysis revealed a cluster of high-high malaria cases in the centre of the city. Malaria case occurrence has a very weak correlation (r = 0.16) with breeding site location. Most of the cases (69.9%, R ² = 0.699) were explained by the local environmental condition, with temperature being the primary risk factor followed by relative humidity. A moderately positive relationship was noted with the total pluviometry, while wind speed had a strong negative influence on malaria infections.

In Cabo Verde, malaria remains a serious public health issue, especially in Praia. The high number of cases recorded in 2017 demonstrates the fragility of the situation and the challenges to eliminating indigenous malaria cases and preventing imported cases. Mosquito breeding sites have been the main risk factor, while temperature and precipitation were positively associated with malaria infection. In light of this study, there is an urgent need to reinforce control strategies to achieve the elimination goal in the country.