Do replicates of independent guppy lineages evolve similarly in a predator-free laboratory environment?

The Trinidadian guppy is emblematic of parallel and convergent evolution, with repeated demonstrations that predation regime is a driver of adaptive trait evolution. A classic and foundational experiment in this system was conducted by John Endler 40 years ago, where male guppies placed into low-predation environments in the laboratory evolved increased color in a few generations. However, Endler's experiment did not employ the now typical design for a parallel/convergent evolution study, which would employ replicates of different ancestral lineages. We therefore implemented an experiment that seeded replicate mesocosms with small founding populations of guppies originating from high-predation populations of two very different lineages. The different mesocosms were maintained identically, and male guppy color was quantified every four months. After one year, we tested whether male color had increased, whether replicates within a lineage had parallel phenotypic trajectories, and whether the different lineages converged on a common phenotype. Results showed that male guppy color generally increased through time, primarily due to changes in melanic color, whereas the other colors showed inconsistent and highly variable trajectories. Most of the nonparallelism in phenotypic trajectories was among mesocosms containing different lineages. In addition to this mixture of parallelism and nonparallelism, convergence was not evident in that the variance in color among the mesocosms actually increased through time. We suggest that our results reflect the potential importance of high variation in female preference and stochastic processes such as drift and founder effects, both of which could be important in nature.