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Longitudinal Determinants of End-of-Life Wealth Inequality
James Poterba1, Steven Venti2, David A Wise3
1MIT and NBER.
Journal of Public Economics
|February 12, 2019
Summary
Most elderly households with very low wealth had little at retirement age. Low lifetime earnings are a key predictor, with wealth accumulation before 65 being the primary determinant of end-of-life poverty.
Area of Science:
- Gerontology
- Economics
- Social Policy
Background:
- Wealth inequality among the elderly is a significant concern for social insurance program design.
- Prevalence of very low wealth holdings impacts retirement security and long-term financial well-being.
Purpose of the Study:
- To examine the incidence and determinants of low financial and total wealth in elderly households.
- To understand wealth trajectories from traditional retirement age (65) to end-of-life.
Main Methods:
- Utilized repeated cross-sections from the Health and Retirement Study (HRS).
- Employed a small longitudinal sample of HRS respondents tracked from age 65 to shortly before death.
Main Results:
- Most individuals with very low wealth at death had minimal wealth at age 65, showing strong persistence.
- Little evidence of significant wealth drawdown in the first 15 years of retirement; probability of low wealth increases slowly after 65.
- Low lifetime earnings strongly predict low wealth at retirement and death; post-retirement medical events or spousal loss have minor impacts.
Conclusions:
- Low wealth accumulation before age 65 is the primary driver of end-of-life low wealth.
- Gaps in post-retirement safety nets or rapid asset depletion play a smaller role than pre-retirement savings inadequacy.
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