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BRIC and MINT countries' environmental impacts rising despite alleviative consumption patterns.
Laura Scherer1, Arjan de Koning1, Arnold Tukker2
1Institute of Environmental Sciences (CML), Leiden University, Leiden, The Netherlands.
The Science of the Total Environment
|February 18, 2019
Summary
Emerging economies like BRIC and MINT countries will see significant environmental impact increases due to economic and population growth. Shifting consumption patterns can mitigate some effects, but technological improvements are crucial for sustainability.
Area of Science:
- Environmental Science
- Economics
- Sustainability Studies
Background:
- Emerging economies, including Brazil, Russia, India, China (BRIC) and Mexico, Indonesia, Nigeria, Turkey (MINT), are experiencing rapid economic and population growth.
- This growth is shifting global economic power and has significant implications for environmental change.
- Understanding the environmental footprint of these nations is critical for global sustainability efforts.
Purpose of the Study:
- To assess the projected carbon, land, and water footprints of BRIC and MINT countries in 2050 compared to 2010.
- To analyze the impact of different income groups and changing consumption patterns on environmental footprints.
- To determine the required technological advancements to offset increased consumption-driven environmental impacts.
Main Methods:
- Utilized the environmentally extended multi-regional input-output database, EXIOBASE.
- Employed a consumption-based approach to quantify environmental footprints.
- Compared projected footprints for 2050 against a 2010 baseline, segmenting by income groups within emerging economies.
Main Results:
- Environmental impacts are projected to increase significantly, ranging from a 1.6-fold rise in Russia's water footprint to a 7.0-fold increase in Nigeria's carbon footprint.
- GDP growth is the primary driver of increased environmental impacts, followed by population growth.
- Changes in consumption patterns due to income growth showed a notable attenuation effect, particularly for water footprints in India and Indonesia (over 50%).
Conclusions:
- Future environmental impact assessments must differentiate between income categories and their associated expenditure patterns.
- Technological advancements are essential to compensate for consumption-driven environmental impact increases.
- BRIC and MINT countries, particularly Russia and China, must intensify efforts towards environmental sustainability to manage rising consumption impacts.