The Effects of Probability Threshold Choice on an Adjustment for Guessing using the Rasch Model

This paper investigates a strategy for accounting for correct guessing with the Rasch model that we entitled the Guessing Adjustment. This strategy involves the identification of all person/item encounters where the probability of a correct response is below a specified threshold. These responses are converted to missing data and the calibration is conducted a second time. This simulation study focuses on the effects of different probability thresholds across varying conditions of sample size, amount of correct guessing, and item difficulty. Biases, standard errors, and root mean squared errors were calculated within each condition. Larger probability thresholds were generally associated with reductions in bias and increases in standard errors. Across most conditions, the reduction in bias was more impactful than the decrease in precision, as reflected by the RMSE. The Guessing Adjustment is an effective means for reducing the impact of correct guessing and the choice of probability threshold matters.