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Forming global estimates of self-performance from local confidence
Marion Rouault1, Peter Dayan2,3,4,5, Stephen M Fleming2,3
1Wellcome Centre for Human Neuroimaging, University College London, WC1N 3AR, London, UK. marion.rouault@gmail.com.
Nature Communications
|March 10, 2019
Summary
Humans underestimate their performance without feedback. Local decision confidence, not just accuracy, shapes global self-performance estimates (SPEs), especially when feedback is absent.
Area of Science:
- Cognitive psychology
- Neuroscience
- Decision-making
Background:
- Metacognition, or self-performance evaluation, is crucial for decisions lacking immediate feedback.
- Previous research focused on confidence in single decisions, not aggregated self-performance estimates (SPEs).
Purpose of the Study:
- To investigate how global self-performance estimates (SPEs) form with and without feedback.
- To test if local decision confidence influences SPEs when feedback is absent.
Main Methods:
- Compared SPE formation in conditions with and without feedback.
- Analyzed the contribution of confidence fluctuations to SPEs.
Main Results:
- Individuals consistently underestimated performance without feedback, despite objective accuracy remaining unchanged.
- Confidence fluctuations significantly predicted global SPEs, beyond accuracy and reaction times.
Conclusions:
- Local confidence is a key factor in forming global self-performance estimates (SPEs) without feedback.
- Confidence plays a vital role in higher-order behavioral control and metacognitive judgments.
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