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Development and Prediction of Context-Dependent Vowel Pronunciation in Elementary Readers
Laura M Steacy1, Donald L Compton1, Yaacov Petscher1
1Florida Center for Reading Research, Florida State University.
Abstract:
As children learn to read they become sensitive to context-dependent vowel pronunciations in words, considered a form of statistical learning. The work of Treiman and colleagues demonstrated that readers' vowel pronunciations depend on the consonantal context in which the vowel occurs and reading experience. We examined child- and nonword-factors associated with children's assignment of more vs. less frequent grapheme-phoneme correspondences (GPC) to vowel pronunciations as a function of rime coda in monosyllabic nonwords. Students (N=96) in grades 2-5 read nonwords in which more vs. less frequent vowel GPCs were wholly supported or partially favored by the rime unit. Two explanatory item-response models were developed using alternative nonword scoring procedures. Use of less frequent vowel GPCs was predicted by set for variability, word reading, and rime support for the context-dependent vowel pronunciation. We interpret the results within a developmental word reading model in which initially incomplete and oversimplified GPC representations become more context-dependent with reading experience.
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However, the point estimate is most likely not the exact value of the population parameter, but close to it. After calculating point estimates, we construct interval estimates, called confidence intervals or prediction intervals. This prediction interval comprises a range of values unlike the point estimate and is a better predictor of the observed sample value, y.
Frequency-dependent Selection