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Global Seismic Nowcasting With Shannon Information Entropy.

John B Rundle1,2,3,4,5, Alexis Giguere1, Donald L Turcotte3

  • 1Department of Physics University of California Davis CA USA.

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|March 12, 2019
PubMed
Summary
This summary is machine-generated.

Seismic nowcasting estimates earthquake potential using natural time and information entropy. Incorporating magnitude information into natural time counts yielded similar earthquake potential scores, suggesting other factors may offer additional insights.

Keywords:
earthquakesentropynowcastingscalingstatisticstsunamis

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Area of Science:

  • Geophysics
  • Seismology
  • Complex Systems

Background:

  • Seismic nowcasting estimates current earthquake fault system states using small earthquake counts.
  • Natural time quantifies elapsed time since the last large earthquake.
  • Shannon information entropy offers another method for analyzing earthquake sequences.

Purpose of the Study:

  • To incorporate seismic information entropy into earthquake nowcasting methods.
  • To investigate the impact of event self-information on earthquake potential scores.

Main Methods:

  • Utilized natural time counts of small earthquakes.
  • Incorporated event self-information (magnitude) into natural time analysis.
  • Calculated earthquake potential scores for a defined geographic region.

Main Results:

  • Earthquake potential scores using seismic information entropy were similar to those using only natural time.
  • The initial integration of magnitude information did not significantly alter the nowcasting scores.

Conclusions:

  • Seismic information entropy shows potential for enhancing earthquake nowcasting.
  • Further analysis of interevent times and magnitude deviations may provide additional predictive information.