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Simplicity, one-shot hypotheses and paleobiological explanation.

Adrian Currie1

  • 1University of Exeter, Exeter, England, UK. a.currie@exeter.ac.uk.

History and Philosophy of the Life Sciences
|March 13, 2019
PubMed
Summary

Paleobiologists use simple, one-shot hypotheses as productive scaffolding for understanding complex past events. This strategic approach aids in identifying key variables and building more comprehensive scientific explanations, as seen with the K-Pg extinction.

Keywords:
ExplanationHistorical scienceMass extinctionPaleobiologyPursuitSimplicity

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Area of Science:

  • Paleobiology
  • Historical Sciences
  • Scientific Methodology

Background:

  • Historical scientists often simplify complex events using 'one-shot hypotheses'.
  • These hypotheses are frequently treated as mutually exclusive explanations.
  • This approach aims to explain as much of an event as possible.

Purpose of the Study:

  • To argue for the strategic utility of provisionally preferring simple, one-shot hypotheses.
  • To demonstrate how this preference provides productive scaffolding for scientific inquiry.
  • To examine the role of these hypotheses in developing more adequate explanations.

Main Methods:

  • Conceptual analysis of scientific reasoning in historical sciences.
  • Examination of 'hypothetical difference-makers' generated by one-shot hypotheses.
  • Case study reference to the K-Pg extinction event.

Main Results:

  • Provisional preference for one-shot hypotheses generates 'hypothetical difference-makers'.
  • These difference-makers isolate empirically tractable dependencies between variables.
  • This process provides resources for constructing more complex and adequate explanations.

Conclusions:

  • A provisional preference for simple, one-shot hypotheses is strategically justified.
  • This approach offers indirect, but significant, benefits for scientific explanation.
  • The methodology is applicable to understanding major historical scientific episodes like the K-Pg extinction.