Risk Assessment for Karnal Bunt Occurrence in the Pacific Northwest

Tilletia indica, the causal agent of Karnal bunt of wheat, was first detected and reported in the United States in 1996. Karnal bunt occurred in the southwestern United States as early as 1992. Wheat contaminated with teliospores of T. indica is likely to have been transported from the Southwest to other regions, including the Pacific Northwest, before presence of the pathogen was discovered. Teliospore and sporidial germination and infection are highly dependent on climatic conditions. The potential for T. indica to infect wheat in the Pacific Northwest has not been reported. The objective of this study was to use published information on environmental factors favorable for infection and historical climate data for the Pacific Northwest to analyze the environmental risk for Karnal bunt to occur if wheat fields in the Pacific Northwest become contaminated by T. indica. Conditions during the past four decades appeared favorable for infection in nonirrigated wheat during 1 of every 3 years at two (Corvallis, OR, and Spokane, WA) of 13 Idaho, Oregon, and Washington locations examined, and every year at all locations where wheat is irrigated. If introduced to the area, it appears possible for T. indica to become established in selected regions of the Pacific Northwest.