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Area of Science:

  • Marine ecology
  • Fisheries science
  • Complex systems analysis

Background:

  • Marine ecosystems face collapses due to multiple stressors.
  • Atlantic cod (Gadus morhua) stock collapses are a prime example, but drivers remain debated.
  • Slow or absent recovery of collapsed fish stocks is poorly understood.

Purpose of the Study:

  • To investigate the drivers of Atlantic cod stock collapses and slow recovery.
  • To model the interaction between exploitation pressure and environmental drivers.
  • To understand the role of ocean warming in cod stock dynamics.

Main Methods:

  • Application of the stochastic cusp model, rooted in catastrophe theory.
  • Statistical modeling to analyze the relationship between fishing pressure, stock size, and environmental factors.
  • Analysis of historical data on Atlantic cod stocks.

Main Results:

  • Cod stock collapse and recovery are potentially driven by the interplay of fishing pressure and environmental factors.
  • Ocean warming can induce a nonlinear, discontinuous relationship between fishing pressure and stock size, explaining hysteresis.
  • Increased ocean temperatures are likely to limit cod productivity and future fishing opportunities.

Conclusions:

  • The interaction between exploitation and ocean warming explains hysteresis in cod stock dynamics.
  • Climate change, specifically ocean warming, poses a significant threat to Atlantic cod stocks.
  • Discontinuous dynamics must be considered in ecosystem-based management, especially under climate change.