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World health status 1950-2015: Converging or diverging
Srinivas Goli1, Moradhvaj1, Swastika Chakravorty1
1Centre for the Study of Regional Development, School of Social Sciences (SSS), Jawaharlal Nehru University (JNU), New Delhi, India.
Plos One
|March 20, 2019
Summary
Global health disparities show a "rise and fall" pattern. Achieving "Grand Convergence" by 2035 requires accelerated progress, as current rates project completion by 2060.
Area of Science:
- Global Health
- Health Economics
- Econometrics
Background:
- The "Grand Convergence" goal aims to reduce global health disparities by 2035.
- Understanding health status convergence is crucial for achieving this goal.
Purpose of the Study:
- To test the convergence hypothesis in health status across 193 countries.
- To analyze trends in global health inequalities using advanced metrics.
Main Methods:
- Employed Dispersion Measure of Mortality (DMM) for absolute inequality and Gini Coefficient for relative inequality.
- Utilized parametric (absolute β and σ-convergence) and nonparametric (kernel density estimates) models to assess Infant Mortality Rate (IMR) and Life Expectancy at Birth (LEB) convergence from 1950-2015.
Main Results:
- Life Expectancy at Birth (LEB) shows convergence, while Infant Mortality Rate (IMR) does not support the standard convergence hypothesis.
- A slowdown in convergence speed was observed, with evidence of regional rather than global convergence emerging.
- Health inequality experienced a "rise and fall" pattern, with divergence followed by slower re-convergence.
Conclusions:
- Current progress rates suggest "Grand Convergence" in global health may be delayed until 2060.
- Achieving the 2035 goal necessitates more radical changes focusing on efficiency and equity in health status across nations.
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