Spatial correlation between excess weight, purchase of ultra-processed foods, and human development in Brazil

The aim of this study was to analyze the spatial distribution of excess weight in Brazil and its correlation with household food insecurity, purchase of foods by type of processing, and Human Development Index (HDI). An ecological study was undertaken using data from three surveys conducted by the Brazilian Institute of Geography and Statistics. Spatial analysis techniques were used to perform univariate and bivariate analysis. The prevalence of excess weight was 34.2% (CI 95% 33.8-34.6%). Excess weight showed a moderate and significant spatial autocorrelation (0.581; p = 0.01), with higher prevalence in states in the South, Southeast and Center-West regions. A positive moderate spatial correlation was shown between the prevalence of excess weight and HDI (0.605; p < 0.05) and purchase of ultra-processed foods (0.559; p < 0.05), while a negative moderate spatial correlation was observed between prevalence of excess weight and household food insecurity (-0.561; p < 0.05). It can be concluded that there is an unequal distribution of excess weight across Brazil. The highest prevalence rates were found in states in the Southeast, South, and Center-West regions, associated with higher HDI values and higher ultra-processed food purchases as a proportion of overall household food purchases.