Quantitative analysis of impact factors on net primary productivity of Tahe forest based on InTEC model

Net primary productivity (NPP) is an important character reflecting forest carbon source/sink capability, with the spatial-temporal change of which being affected by meteorological change (air temperature, precipitation, etc.), changes in atmospheric composition (CO₂ concentration, nitrogen deposition) and various disturbances. However, the key factor driving the changes of forest NPP is still unclear. In order to explore this issue, the relationship between NPP and forest age under different site class index (SCI) was re-simulated and embedded the forest fire data in 1987-2015 to simulate the change characteristics of average NPP of Tahe forest from 1901 to 2015 by comprehensively considering the disturbance and non-disturbance factors of InTEC model, nine scenarios were considered to quantitatively analyze the contribution of different influence factors to the changes of NPP in Tahe forest from 1961 to 2015, and to explore the main influencing factors of the interannual and chronological changes of the Tahe forest NPP to provide a guiding strategy for forest management. The results showed that NPP in Tahe forest was relatively stable from 1901 to 1960, but had a significant trend with the disturbance factors after 1960. The embedding of forest fire and SCI data had different effects on the distribution characteristics of NPP at different times. After 1960, the main reason for the significant change of NPP in Tahe forest was stand age and fire disturbance, with an average annual contribution rate of -49%, followed by precipitation and CO₂, which were -28% and 17% respectively. The average contribution rates of temperature and nitrogen deposition were only 5% and 1%, respectively.