Predicting urine output after kidney transplantation: development and internal validation of a nomogram for clinical...

To analyze pre-transplantation and early postoperative factors affecting post-transplantation urine output and develop a predictive nomogram.

Retrospective analysis of non-preemptive first transplanted adult patients between 2001-2016. The outcomes were hourly diuresis in mL/Kg in the 1st (UO1) and 8th (UO8) postoperative days (POD). Predictors for both UO1 and UO8 were cold ischemia time (CIT), patient and donor age and sex, HLA I and II compatibility, pre-transplantation duration of renal replacement therapy (RRT), cause of ESRD (ESRD) and immunosuppressive regimen. UO8 predictors also included UO1, 1st/0th POD plasma creatinine concentration ratio (Cr1/0), and occurrence of acute cellular rejection (AR). Multivariable linear regression was employed to produce nomograms for UO1 and UO8.

Four hundred and seventy-three patients were included, mostly deceased donor kidneys' recipients (361, 70.4%). CIT inversely correlated with UO1 and UO8 (Spearman's p=-0.43 and -0.37). CR1/0 inversely correlated with UO8 (p=-0.47). On multivariable analysis UO1 was mainly influenced by CIT, with additional influences of donor age and sex, HLA II matching and ESRD. UO1 was the strongest predictor of UO8, with significant influences of AR and ESRD.

The predominant influence of CIT on UO1 rapidly wanes and is replaced by indicators of functional recovery (mainly UO1) and allograft's immunologic acceptance (AR absence). Mean absolute errors for nomograms were 0.08 mL/Kg h (UO1) and 0.05 mL/Kg h (UO8).