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The Trajectory Towards a Seasonally Ice-Free Arctic Ocean.
Dirk Notz1, Julienne Stroeve2,3
11Max Planck Institute for Meteorology, Hamburg, Germany.
Current Climate Change Reports
|April 2, 2019
Summary
Arctic sea ice is rapidly declining due to greenhouse gas emissions. Without significant emission reductions, the Arctic Ocean will be ice-free in summer before 2050.
Area of Science:
- Climate Science
- Oceanography
- Environmental Science
Background:
- Arctic sea ice loss is accelerating.
- A seasonally ice-free Arctic Ocean is a near-term prospect.
Purpose of the Study:
- To review the current understanding of Arctic sea ice trajectory.
- To project the future state of Arctic sea ice cover.
Main Methods:
- Analysis of deterministic (greenhouse gas emissions) and chaotic (internal variability) factors.
- Modeling future Arctic sea ice conditions based on emission scenarios.
Main Results:
- A largely ice-free Arctic Ocean in summer is projected with less than 2°C global warming.
- Limiting future CO2 emissions to below 500 Gt is crucial to maintain a low probability of an ice-free Arctic.
Conclusions:
- The Arctic Ocean faces summer ice-free conditions before mid-century.
- Rapid greenhouse gas emission reductions are necessary to prevent this outcome.
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