Epidemiology, characteristics, and survival of post-colonoscopy colorectal cancer in Asia: A population-based study

Population-based studies on post-colonoscopy colorectal cancer (CRC) from Asia are sparse. We aimed to determine the characteristics and predictive factors and survival of post-colonoscopy CRC in Hong Kong.

This is a territory-wide retrospective cohort study. Patients aged ≥ 40 years with colonoscopies performed between 2005 and 2013 without history of CRCs, inflammatory bowel disease, and prior colectomy were included. Post-colonoscopy colorectal cancer for an interval of 3 years (PCCRC-3y) was defined as CRC diagnosed between 6 and 36 months after index colonoscopy, whereas CRC diagnosed within 6 months of index colonoscopy was regarded as "detected CRC." We used multivariable logistic regression to derive adjusted odds ratio (aOR) of PCCRC-3y and Cox model for adjusted hazard ratio (aHR) of cancer-specific mortality after CRC diagnosis.

Of the 197 902 eligible patients, 10 005 (92.1%) were detected CRC and 854 (7.9%) PCCRC-3y. The median age at PCCRC-3y diagnosis was 75.9 years (interquartile range: 65.5-83.8)-a delay of 1.2 years (interquartile range: 0.8-1.9) from index colonoscopy-and 60.1% were male. Predictive factors for PCCRC-3y included older age (aOR: 1.07), male sex (aOR: 1.45), history of colonic polyps (aOR: 1.31), polypectomy/biopsy at index colonoscopy (aOR: 3.97), surgical endoscopists (aOR: 1.53), and a higher center annual endoscopy volume. Independent predictive factors for cancer-specific mortality after CRC diagnosis included PCCRC-3y (aHR: 1.32), proximal cancer location (aHR: 1.80), and certain patient factors.

The PCCRC-3y rate was 7.9% in Hong Kong, with a high proportion (> 80%) of distal cancers and a higher cancer-specific mortality compared with detected CRC.