Phenology models using herbarium specimens are only slightly improved by using finer-scale stages of reproduction

Herbarium specimens are increasingly used to study reproductive phenology. Here, we ask whether classifying reproduction into progressively finer-scale stages improves our understanding of the relationship between climate and reproductive phenology.

We evaluated Acer rubrum herbarium specimens across eastern North America, classifying them into eight reproductive phenophases and four stages of leaf development. We fit models with different reproductive phenology categorization schemes (from detailed to broad) and compared model fits and coefficients describing temperature, elevation, and year effects. We fit similar models to leaf phenology data to compare reproductive to leafing phenology.

Finer-scale reproductive phenophases improved model fits and provided more precise estimates of reproductive phenology. However, models with fewer reproductive phenophases led to similar qualitative conclusions, demonstrating that A. rubrum reproduces earlier in warmer locations, lower elevations, and in recent years, as well as that leafing phenology is less strongly influenced by temperature than is reproductive phenology.

Our study suggests that detailed information on reproductive phenology provides a fuller understanding of potential climate change effects on flowering, fruiting, and leaf-out. However, classification schemes with fewer reproductive phenophases provided many similar insights and may be preferable in cases where resources are limited.