Better than expected: the influence of option expectations during decision-making
Francesco Rigoli1,2, Raymond Dolan2,3
11 Department of Psychology, City, University of London , Northampton Square, London EC1 V 0HB , UK.
Proceedings. Biological Sciences
|April 10, 2019
Summary
The order options are presented in influences choices. People prefer options that exceed their expectations, even if objectively similar, highlighting the impact of sequential presentation on decision-making.
Area of Science:
- Cognitive Psychology
- Behavioral Economics
- Neuroscience
Background:
- Decision-making often involves evaluating sequentially presented options, such as products in a store.
- The impact of the specific order of option presentation on choice behavior is not fully understood.
- A theoretical model suggests that options exceeding expectations gain perceived value within a sequence.
Purpose of the Study:
- To investigate how the sequential order of option presentation influences decision-making.
- To test the hypothesis that options better than expected are perceived as more valuable, irrespective of objective equivalence.
- To explore the role of expectations in preferential selection within a sequence.
Main Methods:
- Development of a novel decision-making task.
- Manipulation of option presentation order and expectations regarding option value.
- Comparison of choices in trials with identical options but different presentation sequences.
Main Results:
- A significant preference was observed for options that were better than expected.
- This preference persisted even when options were objectively equivalent.
- Option order significantly influenced choice, demonstrating a bias towards exceeding expectations.
Conclusions:
- Expectations about option value play a crucial role in sequential decision-making.
- A preference for better-than-expected options is a key manifestation of this influence.
- Findings have implications for designing choice architecture and policy interventions, like nudge strategies.
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