Quantitative features can predict further growth of persistent pure ground-glass nodule

To evaluate whether quantitative features of persistent pure ground-glass nodules (PGGN) on the initial computed tomography (CT) scans can predict further nodule growth.

This retrospective study included 59 patients with 101 PGGNs from 2011 to 2012, who received regular CT follow-up for lung nodule surveillance. Nineteen quantitative image features consisting of 8 volumetric and 11 histogram parameters were calculated to detect lung nodule growth. For the extraction of the quantitative features, semi-automatic GrowCut segmentation was implemented on chest CT images in 3D slicer platform. Univariate and multivariate analyses were performed to identify risk factors for nodule growth.

With a median follow-up of 52 months, nodule growth was detected in 10 nodules by radiological assessment and in 16 nodules by quantitative features. In univariate analysis, 3D maximum diameter (MD), volume, mass, surface area, 90% percentile, and standard deviation value (SD) of PGGN on the initial CT scan were significantly different between stable nodules and nodules with further growth. In multivariate analysis, MD [hazard ratio (HR), 3.75; 95% confidence interval (CI), 2.14-6.55] and SD (HR, 2.06; 95% CI, 1.35-3.14) were independent predictors of further nodule growth. Also, the area under the curve was 0.896 (95% CI: 0.820-0.948) and 0.813 (95% CI: 0.723-0.883) for MD with a cut-off value of 10.2mm and SD of 50.0 Hounsfield Unit (HU). Besides, the growth rate was 55.6% (n=15) of PGGNs with MD >10.2 mm and SD >50.0 HU.

Based on the initial CT scan, the quantitative features can predict PGGN growth more precisely. PGGN with MD >10.2 mm and SD >50.0 HU may require close follow-up or surgical intervention for the high incidence of growth.