What is the best reference state for building statistical potentials in RNA 3D structure evaluation?

Knowledge-based statistical potentials have been shown to be efficient in protein structure evaluation/prediction, and the core difference between various statistical potentials is attributed to the choice of reference states. However, for RNA 3D structure evaluation, a comprehensive examination on reference states is still lacking. In this work, we built six statistical potentials based on six reference states widely used in protein structure evaluation, including averaging, quasi-chemical approximation, atom-shuffled, finite-ideal-gas, spherical-noninteracting, and random-walk-chain reference states, and we examined the six reference states against three RNA test sets including six subsets. Our extensive examinations show that, overall, for identifying native structures and ranking decoy structures, the finite-ideal-gas and random-walk-chain reference states are slightly superior to others, while for identifying near-native structures, there is only a slight difference between these reference states. Our further analyses show that the performance of a statistical potential is apparently dependent on the quality of the training set. Furthermore, we found that the performance of a statistical potential is closely related to the origin of test sets, and for the three realistic test subsets, the six statistical potentials have overall unsatisfactory performance. This work presents a comprehensive examination on the existing reference states and statistical potentials for RNA 3D structure evaluation.