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Using a Scenario-Neutral Framework to Avoid Potential Maladaptation to Future Flood Risk.

Ciaran Broderick1, Conor Murphy1, Robert L Wilby2

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|April 23, 2019
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Summary
This summary is machine-generated.

Identifying catchments at high risk of flood maladaptation is crucial. This study reveals that catchments with less storage are sensitive to changing precipitation patterns, requiring tailored adaptation strategies for future flood risks.

Keywords:
Irelandcatchment regionalizationclimate changefloodinghydrological model uncertaintyscenario neutral

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Area of Science:

  • Hydrology and Climate Science
  • Environmental Risk Assessment
  • Water Resource Management

Background:

  • Future flood risk assessment is challenged by climate change uncertainties and the potential for maladaptation.
  • A scenario-neutral approach is employed to assess the sensitivity of Irish catchments to projected climate change impacts on fluvial flooding.

Purpose of the Study:

  • To develop a framework for identifying catchment types at high risk of maladaptation to future flood risk.
  • To quantify the sensitivity of Irish catchments to climate change using a range of temperature and precipitation scenarios.
  • To classify catchments based on their physical attributes and sensitivity to flooding.

Main Methods:

  • Utilized a scenario-neutral approach to examine catchment sensitivity to fluvial flooding under national climate change allowances.
  • Simulated 20-year flood magnitudes using GR4J and NAM rainfall-runoff models across predefined sensitivity domains.
  • Employed clustering and discriminant analysis to develop a catchment sensitivity typology and classify data-sparse catchments.

Main Results:

  • Hydrological model uncertainty significantly influences flood sensitivity, more so than climate model ensemble bias.
  • A national flood risk allowance of 20% offers variable protection against projected climate uncertainties.
  • Catchments with lower storage capacity are particularly sensitive to amplified seasonal precipitation cycles, indicating a high risk of maladaptation.

Conclusions:

  • Standardized national or regional flood allowances may lead to ineffective local adaptation strategies.
  • Catchment-specific assessments are essential for robust flood risk management under climate change.
  • Identifying and prioritizing catchments sensitive to precipitation seasonality is critical for mitigating future flood maladaptation.