Combining a Multi-Lake Model Ensemble and a Multi-Domain CORDEX Climate Data Ensemble for Assessing Climate Change
Muhammed Shikhani1, Johannes Feldbauer2, Robert Ladwig3
1Department of Lake Research Helmholtz Centre for Environmental Research (UFZ) Magdeburg Germany.
Water Resources Research
|November 25, 2024
Summary
Global warming will significantly warm lakes, increasing surface and bottom temperatures and extending stratification. This climate change impacts lake mixing dynamics, affecting thermal regimes.
Area of Science:
- Environmental science
- Climate modeling
- Limnology
Background:
- Global warming alters lake thermal dynamics and mixing patterns.
- Climate variability significantly impacts aquatic ecosystems.
- Understanding these changes is crucial for water resource management.
Purpose of the Study:
- To develop and apply a dual ensemble workflow coupling climate and lake models.
- To investigate the impacts of climate change on the thermal dynamics of Lake Sevan.
- To quantify model contributions to uncertainty in climate change projections.
Main Methods:
- Utilized a large set of climate simulations from CORDEX data (multiple domains, scenarios, GCM-RCM combinations).
- Forced multiple hydrodynamic lake models with climate simulations.
- Quantified inter-model uncertainty contributions across the modeling chain.
Main Results:
- Projected significant surface and bottom warming for Lake Sevan by the end of the 21st century (RCP 8.5).
- Predicted longer stratification periods (+55 days) and ice cover disappearance, shifting the mixing regime.
- Identified insufficient winter cooling as a key vulnerability.
Conclusions:
- The dual ensemble workflow provides robust climate change impact projections and uncertainty estimates.
- The workflow is transferable for climate impact studies in other lake systems.
- Lake Sevan is highly vulnerable to projected climate change, impacting its thermal structure and mixing.
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