Temperatures and hypolimnetic oxygen in German lakes: Observations, future trends and adaptation potential

We investigated trends in temperature, stratification, and hypolimnetic oxygen concentration of German lakes under climate change using observational data and hydrodynamic modelling. Observations from 46 lakes revealed that annually averaged surface temperatures increased by + 0.5 °C between 1990 and 2020 while bottom temperatures remained almost constant. Modelling of 12 lakes predicted further increases in surface temperatures by 0.3 °C/decade until the year 2099 in the most pessimistic emission scenario RCP 8.5 (RCP 4.5: + 0.18 °C/decade; RCP 2.6: + 0.04 °C/decade). Again, bottom temperatures increased much less while summer stratification extended by up to 38 days. Using a simplified oxygen model, we showed that hypolimnetic oxygen concentrations decreased by 0.7-1.9 mg L^-1 in response to the extended stratification period. However, model runs assuming lower productivity (e. g. through nutrient reduction) resulted in increased oxygen concentrations even in the most pessimistic emission scenario. Our results suggest that the negative effects of climate change on the oxygen budget of lakes can be efficiently mitigated by nutrient control.