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Updated: Jan 25, 2026

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Twentieth-century hydroclimate changes consistent with human influence.

Kate Marvel1,2, Benjamin I Cook3, Céline J W Bonfils4

  • 1NASA Goddard Institute for Space Studies, New York, NY, USA. kate.marvel@nasa.gov.

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Human activities likely influenced global drought risk as early as the 20th century. Tree ring data spanning 1000 years reveal detectable greenhouse gas impacts on drought patterns, challenging previous assumptions.

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Area of Science:

  • Paleoclimatology
  • Climate Science
  • Drought Studies

Background:

  • Detecting anthropogenic climate change impacts on global drought is challenging due to natural climate variability and limited historical data.
  • Tree ring data provide valuable long-term proxy records for reconstructing past climate conditions, including drought severity.

Observation:

  • Analysis of Palmer Drought Severity Index (PDSI) reconstructions from tree rings over the past millennium.
  • Comparison of climate model simulations, observational data, and paleoclimate reconstructions for the 20th century.

Findings:

  • A robust signal of greenhouse gas-forced drought changes is detectable in the first half of the 20th century (1900-1949).
  • Observations and reconstructions show deviations from expected greenhouse gas forcing patterns mid-century (1950-1975), coinciding with increased aerosol forcing.
  • While greenhouse gas forcing is present in recent decades (1981-present), its signal on drought is not yet detectable with high confidence.

Implications:

  • Human activities have likely influenced global drought risk since the early 20th century.
  • Long-term paleoclimate reconstructions are crucial for disentangling natural variability from anthropogenic climate change signals.
  • Understanding historical drought patterns aids in predicting future drought risks under ongoing climate change.