Global Circular Economy Scenario in a Multiregional Input-Output Framework

Area of Science:

• Environmental Science
• Economics
• Sustainable Development

Background:

• The global population is projected to reach 10 billion by 2050, with increasing material demands.
• Current economic models face resource constraints and environmental degradation.
• A transition to a circular economy is proposed as a solution for sustainability.

Purpose of the Study:

• To assess the economic and environmental impacts of adopting circular economy principles.
• To compare a business-as-usual scenario with a circular economy scenario using multiregional input-output analysis.
• To evaluate the potential for sustained growth and job creation in a circular economy.

Main Methods:

• Utilized the EXIOBASE multiregional input-output (MRIO) database, projecting it to 2030.
• Developed a business-as-usual (BAU) scenario based on the International Energy Agency's (IEA) Energy Technology Perspective (ETP) 6-degree scenario.
• Modeled a circular economy scenario incorporating increased recycling, material efficiency, repair, and reuse.

Main Results:

• Global material extraction is projected to decrease by approximately 10% under the circular economy scenario compared to the BAU.
• The transition to a circular economy shows a small but positive impact on overall employment.
• A sectoral shift from resource extraction to services is anticipated, creating more opportunities for high-skilled and female employment.

Conclusions:

• An accelerated transition to a global circular economy is feasible and beneficial for averting environmental catastrophe.
• Circular economy adoption can deliver sustained economic growth and job creation.
• The shift towards circularity offers a pathway to a more equitable and sustainable economic future.