Accurate neuroimaging biomarkers to predict body mass index in adolescents: a longitudinal study

Obesity is often associated with cardiovascular complications. Adolescent obesity is a risk factor for cardiovascular disease in adulthood; thus, intensive management is warranted in adolescence. The brain state contributes to the development of obesity in addition to metabolic conditions, and hence neuroimaging is an important tool for accurately assessing an individual's risk of developing obesity. Here, we aimed to predict body mass index (BMI) progression in adolescents with neuroimaging features using machine learning approaches. From an open database, we adopted 76 resting-state functional magnetic resonance imaging (rs-fMRI) datasets from adolescents with longitudinal BMI scores. Functional connectivity analyses were performed on cortical surfaces and subcortical volumes. We identified baseline functional connectivity features in the prefrontal-, posterior cingulate-, sensorimotor-, and inferior parietal-cortices as significant determinants of BMI changes. A BMI prediction model based on the identified fMRI biomarkers exhibited a high accuracy (intra-class correlation = 0.98) in predicting BMI at the second visit (1~2 years later). The identified brain regions were significantly correlated with the eating disorder-, anxiety-, and depression-related scores. Based on these results, we concluded that these functional connectivity features in brain regions related to eating disorders and emotional processing could be important neuroimaging biomarkers for predicting BMI progression.