Predicting the geoeffective properties of coronal mass ejections: current status, open issues and path forward.

Area of Science:

• Space Physics
• Solar Physics
• Heliophysics

Background:

• Significant advancements in observing solar eruptions, including coronal mass ejections (CMEs), have been achieved through recent space missions.
• Understanding the energy dynamics driving solar eruptions is progressing, with routine observation of CME initiation and inner heliospheric evolution.
• Despite observational progress, predicting the geoeffectiveness of CMEs remains a significant challenge in space weather forecasting.

Purpose of the Study:

• To identify the key issues hindering medium-term forecasting of space weather impacts from CMEs.
• To review the current status and open challenges in measuring crucial CME geoeffective parameters.
• To propose strategies for enhancing the accuracy of CME measurements and their forecasting.

Main Methods:

• Review of existing measurements and status of main CME geoeffective parameters: magnetic field strength and configuration, Earth arrival time and speed, and mass (momentum).
• Analysis of open issues and limitations in current observational and modeling capabilities.
• Development of a draft action plan incorporating suggestions for sensor deployment, technology development, and modeling/theory improvements.

Main Results:

• Identified critical gaps in accurately measuring and forecasting CME magnetic field properties, arrival time, speed, and momentum.
• Highlighted the need for improved observational strategies and technological advancements to enhance data quality.
• Proposed a framework for future research and development to address current forecasting limitations.

Conclusions:

• Accurate prediction of CME geoeffectiveness requires significant improvements in measuring and forecasting key parameters.
• A coordinated approach involving enhanced sensor deployment, technological innovation, and advanced modeling is essential for medium-term space weather forecasting.
• The proposed action plan provides a roadmap for future research to enhance our ability to predict space weather impacts.