Plant carbon assimilation rates in atmospheric CO₂ reconstructions

Fossil plant gas-exchange-based CO₂ reconstructions use carbon (C) assimilation rates of extant plant species as substitutes for assimilation rates of fossil plants. However, assumptions in model species adoption can lead to systematic error propagation. We used a dataset of c. 2500 extant species to investigate the role of phylogenetic relatedness and ecology in determining C assimilation, an essential variable in gas-exchange-based CO₂ models. We evaluated the effect on random and systematic error propagation in atmospheric CO₂ caused by adopting different model species. Phylogenetic relatedness, growth form, and solar exposure are important predictors of C assimilation rate. CO₂ reconstructions that apply C assimilation rates from modern species based solely on phylogenetic relatedness to fossil species can result in CO₂ estimates that are systematically biased by a factor of > 2. C assimilation rates used in CO₂ reconstructions should be determined by averaging assimilation rates of modern plant species that are (1) in the same family and (2) have a similar habit and habitat as the fossil plant. In addition, systematic bias potential and random error propagation are greatly reduced when CO₂ is reconstructed from multiple fossil plant species with different modern relatives at the same site.