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Ice sheet contributions to future sea-level rise from structured expert judgment
Jonathan L Bamber1, Michael Oppenheimer2,3, Robert E Kopp4,5
1School of Geographical Sciences, University of Bristol, Bristol BS8 1SS, United Kingdom; j.bamber@bristol.ac.uk.
Global sea-level rise (SLR) projections remain uncertain due to ice sheet models. Expert estimates show significant SLR by 2100, potentially exceeding 2 meters, with even higher projections for 2200.
Area of Science:
- Glaciology
- Climate Science
- Sea-Level Rise Research
Background:
- Ice sheet models have advanced since the IPCC AR5, yet significant limitations persist in predicting future sea-level rise (SLR).
- Ice sheet contributions represent the largest uncertainty in global mean SLR projections.
- Expert uncertainty regarding ice sheet dynamics has notably increased.
Purpose of the Study:
- To address limitations in ice sheet model predictive capabilities for sea-level rise (SLR).
- To quantify ice sheet contributions to future SLR using structured expert judgment, including inter- and intra-ice sheet process correlations.
Main Methods:
- Structured expert judgment study incorporating unique techniques for modeling process correlations and tail dependences.
- Analysis of ice sheet contributions to global mean sea-level rise (SLR) under different temperature scenarios (+2°C and +5°C).
Main Results:
- Median SLR estimate of 26 cm by 2100 for a +2°C scenario (95th percentile: 81 cm).
- Median SLR estimate of 51 cm by 2100 for a +5°C scenario (95th percentile: 178 cm).
- Total global SLR exceeding 2 m at the 95th percentile by 2100 when including thermal expansion and glacier contributions.
- Projected 95th percentile ice sheet contribution of 7.5 m by 2200 for a +5°C scenario due to Antarctic instabilities.
Conclusions:
- Expert uncertainty in ice sheet contributions to SLR has grown, particularly due to ice dynamics.
- Findings support using SLR scenarios exceeding 2 m for 21st-century planning.
- Rapidly increasing uncertainty and SLR projections beyond 2100 necessitate further research into ice sheet instabilities.
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