Predicting Glycemic Index and Glycemic Load from Macronutrients to Accelerate Development of Foods and Beverages with Lower Glucose Responses

Low glycemic index (GI) and/or low glycemic load (GL) are associated with decreased risks of type-2 diabetes and cardiovascular disease. It is therefore relevant to consider GI and GL in the early phases of the development of packaged foods and beverages. This paper proposes a model that predicts GI and GL from macronutrient composition, by quantifying both the impact of glycemic carbohydrates and the GI-lowering effects of nutrients such as proteins, fats and fibers. The precision of the model is illustrated using data on 42 breakfast cereals. The predictions of GI (r = 0.90, median residual = 2.0) and GL (r = 0.96, median residual = 0.40 g) compete well with the precision of the underlying in-vivo data (Standard Error SE = 3.5 for GI). This model can guide product development towards lowering GI and GL, before final confirmation by in vivo testing.