Calculation of final size for vector-transmitted epidemic model
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Updated: Jan 24, 2026

Transmitting Plant Viruses Using Whiteflies
Published on: November 8, 2013
Yu Tsubouchi1, Yasuhiro Takeuchi1, Shinji Nakaoka2,3
1College of Science and Engineering, Aoyama Gakuin University, Sagamihara 252-5258, Japan.
Abstract:
Calculation of final size of an epidemic model offers a useful estimation for the impact of an epidemic. Despite its usefulness, the majority of practical applications focuses on the classical Kermack McKendrick model for final size calculation. Estimation of final size for different types of epidemics such as vector-transmitted infection is a forthcoming target. In this paper, we derive an explicit form of a final size equation for a vector-transmitted epidemic model. Numerical calculation of a final size equation revealed the existence of a threshold curve which separates a region into two distinct bistable sub-regions if infection induced death is present. In other words, an epidemic outcome can be qualitatively different depending on the initial state of an epidemic.
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